Methodology
Methodological Principles
Conservatism over precision. Bounds over point estimates. Explainability over complexity. These principles govern analytical outputs. Sophistication is applied to uncertainty quantification, not to prediction confidence.
Role of Assumptions
Assumptions are explicit. They are documented at the time of analysis and reviewed before deployment. When assumptions change, dependent outputs are flagged for recalibration.
Counterfactual Framing
Counterfactuals exist to bound claims. They represent what would have occurred without intervention, estimated conservatively. Attribution is bounded by counterfactual uncertainty, not extended beyond it.
Explicit Limitations
The methodology does not claim predictive certainty. Uncertainty remains in cohort behavior, individual response, and long-term persistence. These limitations are acceptable because they are acknowledged, quantified, and communicated.